How to Access the Outlook

As always, this discussion is based on our comprehensive in-app quarterly report available to Soldera members via the sidebar.

This quarter’s report includes all-new hydrology and reservoir predictive graphs for Norway, which will be a permanent fixture moving forward. 📊

Looking Back at Q3 and Assessing Our Predictions

→ Market experienced unusually high volatility with 2025 vintage prices spiking in July before declining
→ Production estimates adjusted as Italian data corrections showed slower underproduction than initially forecast
→ Southern Norway reservoir levels critically low despite record-high northern reserves 💧
→ Summer trading activity exceeded expectations with significant hedging pressure

Norway Takes Center Stage 🇳🇴

→ Norway’s parliament votes to transpose REDD II into national law
→ Southern reservoir zones (NO2) at historically low levels affecting 2026 outlook
→ Northern zones (NO4) overflowing but transmission-limited from reaching demand centers ⚡
→ Market remains cautious on implementation timeline and actual demand impact

Critical Supply Dynamics

→ 2024 vintage oversupply continues pressuring 2025 spot prices below €0.50/MWh
→ End-of-year spot weakness follows typical seasonal pattern as traders rotate to 2026 vintage
→ Forecasted 4.8% reduction in 2025 GO issuance compared to 2024
→ Dunkelflaute conditions expected in Central Europe impacting renewable production 🌫️
→ First year since 2022 projected to reduce overall market surplus

Demand Outlook and Policy Developments

→ Germany’s 2024 cancellations up 2% year-over-year showing slower growth 🇩🇪
→ Italian Energy Release Scheme replacing government auctions from 2026 onwards 🇮🇹
→ Heavy industry receiving subsidized renewable energy in exchange for production commitments
→ Demand diversifying across Europe beyond traditional German dominance
→ CSRD guidance updates still pending clarity on corporate requirements

Strategic Market Considerations

→ 2026 forward prices commanding significant premiums reflecting improved market balance expectations
→ 2027 showing even stronger pricing as analysts anticipate continued oversupply reduction 🫗
→ Conservative hydro production anticipated through winter and spring affecting supply
→ Renewable buildout slowing across Europe impacting long-term GO issuance → Market positioning for multi-year improvement despite near-term weakness

Stay informed with our quarterly market updates to navigate the evolving GO landscape!

^{🔗: www.soldera.org/podcasts/solderas-q4-go-outlook-state-of-the-goo-market-soldera-markets-12}

#GuaranteesOfOrigin #RenewableEnergy #EnergyMarkets #Sustainability

In this episode of Soldera Markets, Stenver, Al and Ollie from Soldera chat with Koen Andriessen and Chris Myers from Faraday Trading, about what it takes to build a Market Making (MM) operation in the current Guarantee of Origin (GO) market.

This episode delves into:

→ How Faraday transitioned from financial derivatives to GO market making 📊 → Their passive approach: waiting for counterparties rather than chasing trades
→ Why they focus on AIB grid-connected certificates for sharper pricing
→ How constant trading volume creates effective risk management
→ How Faraday views the market: learn about the MM approach to risk and strategy.

Faraday’s Origin Story:

→ Three co-founders with extensive careers in financial market making
→ Started January 2024 as their first entrepreneurial venture together
→ Saw GO market as less developed compared to efficient financial markets
→ Drew parallels to financial products that became liquid over time
→ Brought MM expertise to a space dominated by back-to-back trading

Soldera Auctions:

→ Learn how Faraday and Soldera work well together
→ Explore how market makers access quality GO supply efficiently
→ Understand how streamlined sourcing strengthens MM liquidity provision

Enjoyed this episode? Sign up for more GO market expertise in your inbox ⬇️

Enjoyed? Subscribe 𝗛𝗲𝗿𝗲 📧

Renewable Producer in GO Markets? Try Soldera ⬇️

In GO Markets? 𝗧𝗿𝘆 𝗦𝗼𝗹𝗱𝗲𝗿𝗮 ⧉

Looking Back at Q2 and Assessing Our Predictions

→ Market experienced prolonged decline before dramatic recovery in final weeks 📉
→ Prices bottomed at 40 cents before recovering to 80 cents, validating under-supply predictions
→ German June disclosure deadline created delayed market activity separate from March patterns 🇩🇪

We Need To Talk About Norway…

→ Q2 Episode correction: Total Norwegian GO consumption actually decreased year-over-year despite record cancellations.
→ Problematic government behaviour impacting the GO market intensifies 🇳🇴

Critical Supply Dynamics

→ Europe producing 8-9% less renewable energy than last year, creating 50 TWh deficit
→ Nordic hydro reserves normalizing after record-high levels, hot summer predictions threatening further decline ☀️
→ 2024 vintage GOs now in end-of-life phase as traders rotate inventory 🔄

Demand Outlook and Regulatory Shifts

→ CSRD scope reduction from 50,000 to 10,000 companies but targeting largest emitters 📋
→ Hydrogen RFNBO requirement relaxation lobbying could unlock hundreds of TWh demand
→ Corporate sustainability commitments remaining strong despite regulatory changes
→ Forward curve premiums moderating as regulatory uncertainty impacts long-term pricing 📈

Strategic Market Considerations

→ Forward markets showing 50% premiums for 2026 vintage as utilities hedge exposure 📊
→ Record-low oversupply reduction expected to significantly impact market dynamics
→ New government auctions emerging while market fragmentation challenges persist 🆕
→ Cross-border virtual GO accounts on the horizon at Soldera. Watch this space …

As always, stay connected with our quarterly market outlooks to track the GO landscape. Catch our next outlook in Q4!

In GO Markets? 𝗧𝗿𝘆 𝗦𝗼𝗹𝗱𝗲𝗿𝗮 ⧉

#GuaranteesOfOrigin #RenewableEnergy #EnergyMarkets #Renewables

Looking Back at Q1 and Assessing Our Predictions

→ Most predictions materialized, especially regarding March 31st disclosure deadline activity
→ Record Norwegian cancellations show market progress with 22 TWh more domestic consumption 🇳🇴
→ Pricing remained sideways despite high volumes and record cancellations
→ Geopolitical factors and defense priorities temporarily overshadowing sustainability initiatives

Critical Supply Dynamics

→ 47 TWh renewable underproduction silently reducing market oversupply 📉
→ Nordic hydro reservoir levels have less market impact than commonly believed
→ Rapid value decline of 2024 GOs problematic for remaining holders
→ Germany's June deadline creates final window for 2024 GO consumption 🇩🇪

Demand Outlook and Market Sentiment

→ Forward prices historically low at €1+ despite continued interest
→ CSRD scope reduction from 50,000 to 10,000 companies impacting price modeling 📋
→ Potential hydrogen regulation relaxation could significantly boost GO demand
→ Voluntary GO adoption in Iceland signals sustainable demand growth

Strategic Considerations

→ Why some people are considering leaning toward 30% forward volume hedging 📊
→ Market's contango state reflects confidence in long-term improvement
→ Country-specific vintage rules create arbitrage opportunities in Estonia and Italy
→ Energy-intensive industry incentives creating new demand sources across Europe ⚙️

Stay informed with our quarterly market updates to navigate the evolving GO market landscape!

In GO Markets? 𝗧𝗿𝘆 𝗦𝗼𝗹𝗱𝗲𝗿𝗮 ⧉

#GuaranteesOfOrigin #RenewableEnergy #EnergyMarkets #Sustainability

This interview explores:

→ How Estonian entrepreneurs think globally from day one
→ Soldera's founding journey and pivot from carbon credits to renewable energy
→ Navigating fundraising as a climate tech company in Estonia
→ When founders should (or shouldn't) pursue venture capital
→ How Soldera leverages AI to automate compliance work
→ How EU regulations create business opportunities
→ Finding balance between supportive and restrictive policies
→ What Estonia could improve to better support climate startups

Key insights include:

→ Climate tech founders need laser focus rather than pursuing multiple opportunities
→ Estonia's small market forces founders to think internationally from day one
→ Taking VC means accepting responsibility to build a billion-dollar business
→ Estonia's fast company formation and digital services are models for Europe
→ Maintaining stable business policies helps Estonia attract international founders
→ Community-building events could strengthen Estonia's climate tech ecosystem

#ClimateTech #Estonia #VentureCapital

Topics covered:

→ Policy vs market analysis roles in the GO space
→ Impact of geopolitics on EU energy transition
→ CSRD's influence on GO demand
→ EU's Omnibus package reducing CSRD scope by 80%
→ Norway's evolving position on GOs
→ Granularity debates (monthly vs hourly matching)
→ Clean Industrial Deal & public procurement
→ GOs as revenue for renewable producers
→ Implementation challenges across EU states
→ Green Claims Directive and eco-labels

Key insights:

→ EU decarbonization targets remain despite competing priorities
→ Companies adopting dual reporting for scope 2 emissions
→ Potential reduction from 50,000 to 10,000 CSRD companies
→ Only renewable hydrogen regulations currently push hourly granularity
→ Public procurement (40% of EU GDP) could drive GO demand
→ GOs can represent up to 7% of operational income for producers
→ National implementation varies widely across member states
→ Clean Industrial Deal merges decarbonization with competitiveness

In GO Markets? 𝗧𝗿𝘆 𝗦𝗼𝗹𝗱𝗲𝗿𝗮 ⧉

#RenewableEnergy #Sustainability #EnergyPolicy

This Episode Covers:

→ The evolving African renewable energy certificates (RECs) market
→ Growth patterns showing doubling volumes year-on-year
→ How only 17 of 54 African countries currently participate in I-REC systems
→ Pricing differences between African markets ($1-5/MWh) versus other regions
→ The challenges of grid integration for large-scale renewable projects

Key Insights:

→ African I-REC volumes reaching 3.5 million MWh in 2024
→ The untapped potential in distributed energy resources
→ How African renewables have lower default rates than comparable U.S. investments
→ The critical need for international capital in project development
→ Why solar makes economic sense beyond environmental benefits

Special Focus on African Energy Development:
→ The economic impact of unreliable power on businesses
→ How solar adoption is growing rapidly without government subsidies
→ The push for local manufacturing of renewable components
→ Regional integration through AfCFTA and pan-African energy initiatives
→ The continent's vast solar potential (currently just 2% of global capacity)

#RenewableEnergy #AfricanEnergy #CleanEnergy #SolarPower #IRecs #EnergyAccess #AfricanDevelopment

→ Estonia's journey from oil shale dependency to renewable energy leadership
→ The recent 2025 Baltic grid desynchronization from Russia
→ How Guarantees of Origin (GOs) drive market-based renewable adoption
→ The critical role of energy independence in national security
→ Green hydrogen's future in the Baltic energy mix

Key Insights:

→ Estonia's early adoption of digital solutions for energy trading
→ The impact of EU carbon prices on traditional energy sources
→ Balancing market competitiveness with sustainability goals
→ Why interconnectors are crucial for price stability
→ The challenges and opportunities in frequency market development

Special Focus on European Energy Security:

→ How Estonia prepared for grid resilience a decade ahead of Western Europe
→ The importance of maintaining a unified European energy market
→ Balancing regulation with innovation in clean tech

#EnergyTransition #CleanEnergy #GridResilience #RenewableEnergy #Estonia #Baltics

This Episode Covers:

• How record-high Nordic hydro reservoirs are creating potential market oversupply conditions 💧

• Why the new CSRD reporting requirements will impact companies with over 500 employees 📋

• What makes the March 30th disclosure deadline crucial for Q1 market movements ⏰

• How German elections could influence Europe's largest GO importing market 🇪🇺

• What forward trading patterns reveal about long-term price confidence 📈

Understanding Market Dynamics:

• Despite current oversupply, why supply levels remain lower than early 2024 levels 📉

• How mandatory corporate sustainability audits are reshaping EU company practices 🏢

• Why local sourcing requirements are becoming essential, particularly for German subsidies 🗺️

• How RED3 directive makes it easier for small-scale renewable producers to participate 🌱

• What new industry support programs mean for energy-intensive sectors across Europe ⚡

Stay tuned for our quarterly market updates to keep your finger on the pulse of the GO market!

In GO Markets? 𝗧𝗿𝘆 𝗦𝗼𝗹𝗱𝗲𝗿𝗮 ⧉

#GuaranteesOfOrigin #RenewableEnergy #EnergyMarkets #Sustainability

Join Al, Ollie & Stenver for a detailed exploration of RE100's framework for credible renewable energy claims.

📹This episode covers:

→ What makes a renewable energy claim credible under RE100 standards 📊
→ The six key criteria for valid claims
→ Geographic market boundaries and their implications
→ How vintage limitations affect renewable energy certification
→ The importance of attribute aggregation

⚡Key topics we discuss:

→ Why countries like Poland remain outside the AIB system
→ The Costa Rica paradox of 99% renewable grid
→ How market boundaries affect liquidity
→ The special requirements for hydro and biomass certification
→ The 15-year age limit rule and its exceptions

💡Notable insights include:

→ Why grid connection alone isn't enough for cross-border trades
→ How the UK's post-Brexit isolation affects the market
→ The challenges of matching consumption periods
→ Why tracking matters even in nearly 100% renewable markets
→ The importance of preventing attribute unbundling

Fascinated by renewables, renewable assets and renewable market frameworks?

Subscribe to stay informed on pressing developments!

Subscribe now

In GO Markets? 𝗧𝗿𝘆 𝗦𝗼𝗹𝗱𝗲𝗿𝗮 ⧉

In GO Markets? 𝗧𝗿𝘆 𝗦𝗼𝗹𝗱𝗲𝗿𝗮 ⧉

#RenewableEnergy #GuaranteesOfOrigin #EnergyTrading #CleanEnergy

Join Stenver Jerkku (Founder & CEO) and Al William Tammsaar from Soldera as we explore the fundamentals of Guarantees of Origin (GOs) in the European renewable energy market. In this premiere episode, we break down:

→ What are Guarantees of Origin and how do they work? 🌐
→ The regulatory landscape across different European countries 📜
→ Complex market dynamics and challenges
→ The role of AIB in standardizing the market
→ The future of hourly GOs and energy storage

Key insights we explore:

→ How GOs separate physical electricity from its green attributes
→ Why biomass facilities face unique verification challenges
→ The impact of Norwegian hydropower on market supply
→ Current price trends and market movements
→ The effects of Italian government auctions on prices

Don't forget to like, comment, and subscribe to stay updated on all things GO!

#Renewableenergy #GuaranteesOfOrigin #Sustainability #CleanEnergy

In GO Markets? 𝗧𝗿𝘆 𝗦𝗼𝗹𝗱𝗲𝗿𝗮 ⧉