As 2025 comes to a close, we analyze the critical factors shaping the European Guarantees of Origin (GO) market while reviewing our assessment from Q3. You can select your favourite podcast platform to watch or listen to this episode here.
How to Access the Outlook
As always, this discussion is based on our comprehensive in-app quarterly report available to Soldera members via the sidebar.
This quarter’s report includes all-new hydrology and reservoir predictive graphs for Norway, which will be a permanent fixture moving forward. 📊
Looking Back at Q3 and Assessing Our Predictions
→ Market experienced unusually high volatility with 2025 vintage prices spiking in July before declining
→ Production estimates adjusted as Italian data corrections showed slower underproduction than initially forecast
→ Southern Norway reservoir levels critically low despite record-high northern reserves 💧
→ Summer trading activity exceeded expectations with significant hedging pressure
Norway Takes Center Stage 🇳🇴
→ Norway’s parliament votes to transpose REDD II into national law
→ Southern reservoir zones (NO2) at historically low levels affecting 2026 outlook
→ Northern zones (NO4) overflowing but transmission-limited from reaching demand centers ⚡
→ Market remains cautious on implementation timeline and actual demand impact
Critical Supply Dynamics
→ 2024 vintage oversupply continues pressuring 2025 spot prices below €0.50/MWh
→ End-of-year spot weakness follows typical seasonal pattern as traders rotate to 2026 vintage
→ Forecasted 4.8% reduction in 2025 GO issuance compared to 2024
→ Dunkelflaute conditions expected in Central Europe impacting renewable production 🌫️
→ First year since 2022 projected to reduce overall market surplus
Demand Outlook and Policy Developments
→ Germany’s 2024 cancellations up 2% year-over-year showing slower growth 🇩🇪
→ Italian Energy Release Scheme replacing government auctions from 2026 onwards 🇮🇹
→ Heavy industry receiving subsidized renewable energy in exchange for production commitments
→ Demand diversifying across Europe beyond traditional German dominance
→ CSRD guidance updates still pending clarity on corporate requirements
Strategic Market Considerations
→ 2026 forward prices commanding significant premiums reflecting improved market balance expectations
→ 2027 showing even stronger pricing as analysts anticipate continued oversupply reduction 🫗
→ Conservative hydro production anticipated through winter and spring affecting supply
→ Renewable buildout slowing across Europe impacting long-term GO issuance → Market positioning for multi-year improvement despite near-term weakness
Stay informed with our quarterly market updates to navigate the evolving GO landscape!
🔗: www.soldera.org/podcasts/solderas-q4-go-outlook-state-of-the-goo-market-soldera-markets-12
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